ANZ NZ House Price Forecast October 2026: What Buyers and Homeowners Should Know

Prepared 22 October 2026 | Source report published 21 October 2026

ANZ has revised its forecast for New Zealand house prices. Its October 2026 Property Focus now expects prices to finish this year around 2% below where they started, with another 1% decline forecast for 2027. The bank previously expected a 1% fall in 2026 and a 2% rise in 2027.

These are forecasts by ANZ economists, not confirmed future prices. They matter because they help explain how higher interest rates, household incomes and buyer demand could affect the market. They do not tell you what a particular home in Tauranga, Rotorua or Auckland is worth.

What happened in ANZ's October report?

The report, published on 21 October 2026, says the national housing market has shifted from broadly flat to gently declining. ANZ now expects mild downward pressure to continue until around the middle of 2027, before prices stabilise.

The bank links its revised outlook to rising interest rates and softer demand. Higher borrowing costs can constrain demand and prolong selling times.

ANZ assesses long-term fundamentals including income, construction costs, ownership costs and interest rates. It finds prices closer to those fundamentals than in 2021, but potentially still above them.

The key numbers: observations versus forecasts

The House Price Index (HPI) tracks changes in housing prices while adjusting for property characteristics. It is not the same as a median sale price, and neither measure determines the value of an individual property. ANZ's regional figures use REINZ data seasonally adjusted by ANZ Research.

ANZ also forecasts the Official Cash Rate (OCR) reaching 3.5% by March 2027, based on further increases. That is ANZ's expectation, not a decision or commitment by the Reserve Bank. The OCR stood at 2.75% following the September RBNZ decision.

What could this mean for first-home buyers?

A softer market may create opportunities to compare properties carefully, negotiate and avoid rushing. But a national forecast of a modest decline does not mean every seller will accept less, or that prices in every suburb will fall.

Use recent comparable sales in the same area and similar property type. Check legal documents, building condition, natural hazards and insurance with appropriate professionals. If bidding at auction, obtain appropriate property-specific finance confirmation before committing unconditionally.

A sensible budget also includes rates, insurance, maintenance and a repayment buffer. The amount a lender may approve is not necessarily the amount that feels comfortable for your household.

What could it mean for existing homeowners and refixers?

A house-price forecast does not directly determine the interest rate on your mortgage. Fixed mortgage rates are influenced by wholesale funding costs, market expectations, lender pricing and the OCR, but they do not move one-for-one with each OCR decision.

If your fixed term is ending, compare actual offers and calculate repayments under different fixed terms. Consider whether you value repayment certainty or flexibility, and understand any conditions around early repayment. ANZ's published economic view is not a recommendation that one particular fixed term suits everyone.

Homeowners who may sell and buy another property should also consider the timing of both transactions and how a changed sale price could affect their deposit and borrowing needs.

What about refinancing and property investors?

A lower property valuation could affect your loan-to-value ratio and the equity available for refinancing. Before switching banks, check whether there are break costs, legal expenses, cashback conditions or new valuation requirements. A different lender will make its own credit assessment.

For investors, the main questions remain rental income, vacancies, insurance, rates, repairs and financing costs. A forecast of falling national prices should not replace suburb-level rental and sales research. Nor should investors assume that future interest rates or tax rules will move in a particular direction.

Why might ANZ's forecast turn out differently?

Forecasts are conditional on assumptions. ANZ identifies the path of long-term interest rates as an important uncertainty. If rates remain higher than expected, prices could face more pressure; if rates ease or economic conditions strengthen, the market could perform better than its central forecast.

Local conditions can also diverge. ANZ's September HPI readings show Auckland, Bay of Plenty and Wellington were already following different paths. A specific property can be affected by location, quality, supply, insurance and buyer competition even when the national index changes only slightly.

What to watch next

Stats NZ scheduled the September-quarter CPI release for 22 October 2026, followed by the RBNZ's next OCR review on 28 October 2026. Check the published outcomes before making claims about inflation or interest-rate decisions. Also watch the next REINZ releases, new listings and days to sell in your local market.

For a purchase or refix, the practical next step is to assess the actual property, household finances and available lender options rather than trying to predict a precise market bottom. Ravinder Chahal at EasyMortgage NZ can help borrowers understand mortgage options and the documentation needed for an assessment.

Frequently asked questions

• Does ANZ forecast a 2% fall from today's prices?

  No. The −2% forecast refers to the change from the start to the end of calendar year 2026 in the national index. It is not an additional 2% fall from the publication date.

• Are house prices guaranteed to fall in 2027?

  No. The −1% figure is ANZ’s revised annual forecast, not an observed outcome or a guarantee.

• Will the OCR reach 3.5%?

  ANZ economists forecast that level by March 2027. Only the Reserve Bank decides the OCR, and its future decisions depend on incoming information.

• Does a softer market make it easier to obtain a mortgage?

  Not necessarily. Lenders still assess income, expenses, debts, deposit, property security and their current criteria.

• Does the Bay of Plenty result apply directly to Tauranga or Rotorua?

  No. The reported −0.8% is a regional HPI annual change, not a suburb-specific or individual-property valuation. Rotorua is in the Bay of Plenty region, but local outcomes can vary widely.